2025 Cubs Heroes and Goats: The Turning Point Game 75

With a day game Saturday after a Friday loss, you’ll pardon me if this one is pretty brief.

I’m going to start with some data around runs scored. The Cubs are 17-0 when they score eight or more runs. To be clear, the story there is that they’ve reached that mark 17 times. They are 7-3 when they score exactly seven. Again, holy cow, 27 times with seven or more runs. They are 5-1 when they score exactly six. They are 3-1 when they score five. With today’s loss, they are now 4-4 at four runs. 32-5 if the Cubs score five or more runs.

That’s a long way of saying that the offense came up a little short of their tipping point. And that the pitching staff let the team down so bad that it mostly didn’t matter.

I don’t think I’ve ever really talked about work. I handle malpractice insurance claims for lawyers primarily, but also accountants, architects, engineers, real estate agents and board members (HOA/Condo). In almost every instance, when one of them makes a mistake, someone else’s life is altered. This is a long way of saying that it sucks that relievers have no general margin for error. But the reality is, when relievers allow runs, it often sinks the ship.

So, I think there is plenty of blame to pass around. The offense did not do enough. Period. That said, George Kirby is a pretty talented pitcher. His numbers are a little misleading due to a late start to his season and getting blown up his first two times out. After that, the Mariners got to work downhill a lot, protecting a lead.

On the other side, Matthew Boyd was adequate. It’s a shame he didn’t get a sixth inning. Also, if being removed was anything more than a precaution, I’m seriously concerned. I don’t think getting Shōta Imanaga back is enough to steady the rotation. Losing Boyd would be a significant setback. Then, three of the four Cubs relievers allowed multiple runs. That’s just a total failure. It’s hard to be harsh after they have dominated for more than a month.

A couple of festering issues. First, I brought up Génesis Cabrera yesterday. I have to say it again. Maybe he’s talented. Maybe he works things out. Maybe he’s a future regret story where you cut bait too soon. He’s got to go. It’s not working and there just isn’t enough margin of error. I will note that the Cubs bullpen allowed seven runs in four innings. But, for my money, the four pitchers who didn’t work are the Cubs four top relievers. If you have Caleb Thielbar over Chris Flexen, I hear you. But I’m at the point of buying what Flexen is selling.

Dansby Swanson in the fifth spot in the order is a problem without an obvious answer. You ideally want Matt Shaw working things out in Iowa and someone else, preferably a right-handed bat that mashes left handed hitters. Shaw’s defense is terrific, but the offense just isn’t quite there. Nico Hoerner should probably bat fifth at this point. Against left-handed pitching, the Cubs have three hitters over .800 OPS, with Hoerner being that third guy. Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have five hitters over .800 (dropping Miguel Amaya who doesn’t have 100 such PA).

I will float again the idea of Kyle Tucker leading off with Seiya Suzuki and PCA following. That would produce a glut of right-handed hitting down in the order, but this strategy is getting your three best hitters the most PA.

Pitch Counts:

• Mariners: 134,36 BF
• Cubs: 172, 43 BF

So this is the horror story that one would expect from nine runs allowed. The Cubs just threw too many pitches. If you watched the broadcast, you know the deal. The Cubs struggled all day to get the third out in two-out situations. All nine runs scored with two outs.

From a long term view, Ryan Pressly threw 29 pitches. That probably makes him unavailable Saturday under ordinary circumstances. Génesis Cabrera threw 31 pitches on a back-to-back. I don’t think he should touch a ball for the Cubs again this year, but certainly not Saturday. I’d think the Cubs would have six arms available Saturday, though I could see them wrestling with Flexen versus Pressly in a pinch. And I will again advocate for someone with an option remaining for a few days for Cabrera.

On the Mariners side, they were off Thursday. They did use five relievers, but none threw more than 16 pitches. They should have a full complement of relievers Saturday.

Three Stars:

1. Michael Busch had three singles, including a big two-run single his first time up.
2. Kyle Tucker had a pair of hits, one a double. He drew a walk and scored a run.
3. I’m going to give some love to Reese McGuire for the last spot with a homer and a walk.

Game 75, June 20:

Mariners 9, Cubs 4 (45-30)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• 
  Superhero:
  
  Michael Busch (.186). 3-4, 2 RBI
• 
  Hero:
  
  Seiya Suzuki (.136). 1-3, 2B, BB, R
• 
  Sidekick:
  
  Reese McGuire (.135). 1-3, HR, BB, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• 
  Billy Goat:
  
  Caleb Thielbar (-.320). ⅔ IP, 5 BF, 3 H, 2 ER, K (L 2-2)
• 
  Goat:
  
  Ryan Pressly (-.220). IP, 7 BF, 3 H, BB, 2 ER, K
• 
  Kid:
  
  Dansby Swanson (-.176). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game:

Cal Raleigh’s second homer of the day in the seventh inning, with two outs and a runner on first, gave the Mariners a two-run lead. (.349)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s two-run single with two outs in the first. (.168)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Yesterday’s Winner:

PCA edged out Chris Flexen 68-66 (159 total votes).

Rizzo Award Standings:

(Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Kyle Tucker +26
• PCA +15
• Jameson Taillon +14
• Drew Pomeranz +13
• Shōta Imanaga/Miguel Amaya +11
• Jon Berti -9
• Ben Brown -14
• Seiya Suzuki -14.5
• 
  Julian Merryweather -15
  
• Dansby Swanson -22.33

Up Next:

Game two of the three-game series. The last time the Cubs lost a series at home was to the Giants, May 5-7. And the 6th, 7th and 9th of May was the last time the Cubs lost three straight.

Cade Horton (3-1, 3.47, 36⅓ IP) starts for the Cubs. This is his seventh start and eighth overall appearance for the Cubs. Last time out, he got two outs into the sixth without allowing any runs. He allowed three hits and a walk. He’s been better at home (2.70 vs. 4.12).

26-year-old Emerson Hancock (3-2, 4.48, 62⅓ IP) starts for the Mariners. Hancock is yet another first round draftee (2020 sixth overall). The right-hander will be making his 28th career start (13th this year). He’s 1-0 with a 1.53 over 17⅔ innings in June. So he’s throwing well. He lost a start last year against the Cubs despite allowing only two runs on four hits over six innings.

Find a way to win.