4 Overhyped Rookie Picks to Skip in 2025 Fantasy Football

With the 2025 NFL Draft behind us and organized team activities (OTAs) nearly complete, we now have a clearer picture of how the dynasty market is valuing this year’s fantasy football rookie class. In this article, I’ll be highlighting four prospects whose current dynasty fantasy football valuations I believe are overly optimistic.

As a result, I’ll be fading these players at their current cost. For context, all analysis is based on a Superflex PPR format. I’ll be comparing my current dynasty rookie rankings with the expert consensus rankings (ECR) to identify the players I’m lowest on.

• Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
• DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
• Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

Overvalued Rookies to Avoid in Dynasty Fantasy Football

Jaydon Blue (RB – DAL)

• 
  ECR: 26
  
• 
  My Rookie Rank: 32
  

Funny enough, Jaydon Blue was featured in one of my pre-draft articles covering my favorite undervalued dynasty rookie prospects. His elite receiving upside and breakaway ability make him an intriguing PPR option. Still, after landing in Dallas, Blue has been pushed up the board to the point I’m not comfortable grabbing him. People are drafting Blue as if he is the future lead back for the Cowboys, which is a stretch, considering he was never even the lead back for his college team.

While landing spot is crucial for a young running back’s dynasty value, we need to keep in mind the prospect profile here. Blue is undersized, struggled with ball security at Texas and never saw more than 135 rush attempts in a single season. He could develop into a quality third-down back, but there are too many names consistently available in the early third round of rookie drafts whom I’m not passing on for Blue. I prefer
Jarquez Hunter
over Blue, for example, and he is going well after him in rookie drafts.

Jalen Milroe (QB – SEA)

• 
  ECR: 18
  
• 
  My Dynasty Rank: 24
  

Believe me, I’m well aware of the positional advantage having a “Konami Code” quarterback can provide to one’s dynasty team.
Jayden Daniels
,
Lamar Jackson
and
Josh Allen
are my top three dynasty quarterbacks, and
LaNorris Sellers
is my devy QB1 overall. These guys can break fantasy with their legs. However, a prerequisite for becoming a starting NFL quarterback is sound decision-making and processing abilities, which Jalen Milroe simply did not demonstrate last season at Alabama. In addition, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has been insistent that
Sam Darnold
is their guy as they look to make a deep run in the playoffs.

The weekly ceiling Milroe would bring if he earns a starting role is enough for me to value him as a late-second or early third-round pick in Superflex rookie drafts. That said, a mid-second is a bit too rich for my blood; at that price, we’re passing up on too many talented prospects for a guy who may never start a game in the NFL.

Jalen Royals (WR – KC)

• 
  ECR: 30
  
• 
  My Dynasty Rank: 39
  

As a devy player, I have been following Jalen Royals’ career since his breakout season with Utah State in 2023. His path to fantasy relevance was unexpected, as he started his career at Georgia Military College before transferring to Utah State, where he put his name on the map in his second season with the Aggies. Royals’ best season came in 2024, where he posted 839 receiving yards and six touchdowns in just seven games before ultimately suffering a season-ending foot injury. His 28.9% target per routes run (TPRR) and 3.00 yards per route run (YPRR)


as a senior proved he could be a highly efficient receiver.

My biggest concern here is that Royals’ skill set is too similar to both
Rashee Rice
and
Xavier Worthy
. Royals is a physical receiver (like Rice) with long speed (like Worthy) and is a legitimate threat after the catch (like Rice and Worthy). The problem is, I think he may just be a worse version of these two prospects, so I’m not sure how he sneaks into the starting lineup in the short or long term. With
Marquise Brown
and
Travis Kelce
back as well, I doubt we’ll see Royals much at all in 2025, barring injury.

Dylan Sampson (RB – CLE)

• 
  ECR: 27th
  
• 
  My Dynasty Rank: 40
  

I was slightly intrigued by Dylan Sampson’s profile coming out of Tennessee. He’s just 20 years old, was an early declare and rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 22 touchdowns this past season. The Volunteers’ offense is a tough one to pin down when grading out their running backs, given the high-tempo, spread offense head coach Josh Heupel has integrated. This allows for a lot of lighter boxes for running backs to deal with, which was also why
Jaylen Wright
was so strong analytically in his final college season. I was cautiously optimistic, but waiting on draft capital and landing spot before drawing any conclusions with Sampson.

Unfortunately, Sampson fell to Day 3 of the NFL Draft and landed on the Browns, who had just grabbed
Quinshon Judkins
in round two. With no clear path to a reasonable workload shortly, I’m confused as to why ECR has Sampson as an early third-round rookie pick. At best, Sampson earns a third-down role and is a risky Flex play, and at worst, he’s the RB3 behind
Jerome Ford
. I’d much rather take one of these second-tier tight ends, like
Harold Fannin Jr.
,
Oronde Gadsden
,
Terrance Ferguson
or
Elijah Arroyo
, with my early third-round pick.

Thank you for checking out my article. As always, if you have any dynasty or devy-related questions, I can be reached on
X @jim_DFF
. I’d love to help get your team ready for the upcoming season.

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