Can Nebraska Football Finally Turn the Tide in 2025?

On this week’s Saturday Morning Coffee Show, Josh Peterson and Matt McMaster discussed the big questions surround Nebraska football in 2025 and found reasons to believe they’ll be answered in the affirmative.

Below is a lightly-edited transcript of their conversation.

Dylan Raiola’s big 2025

Josh

: “Are are we sure Dylan Raiola can take the next step?” Not to just quote myself; I wrote, “this is the question, right?” It is though. It’s the quarterback. It’s the most important position in all of sports.

Last year, you break his season into thirds. You look at the first part of the season, which culminates in the loss to Illinois, 72% completion, almost a thousand yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions. He gets sacked on almost every play of overtime [against Illinois] and then you look at the next [five] games, his completion percentage dropped by 13%. He had two touchdowns; he threw six interceptions.

Against Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State, in those games in particular, he threw zero touchdowns and five interceptions. And then in the final four games it hops again above 70% completion. Only three touchdowns vs. three interceptions and of course that is when Dana Holgorsen steps up.

So if they’re gonna be good, if they’re gonna take the next step, it is going to be in large part because of what Dylan Raiola is able to do. I guess the way I would describe it before you go is I don’t see him putting up the same numbers he had last year and the football team going 9-3. If they’re going to go 9-3, his numbers are going to get a whole lot better.

Matt

: It’s an optics thing, isn’t it? If he doesn’t make the next step, it looks bad for the staff. It looks bad for Matt Rhule. It looks bad for Glenn Thomas. It looks bad for Dana Holgorsen. To the point where, in my opinion, you have people questioning the ability for Nebraska in this iteration of Nebraska, if they can develop a quarterback. “Can Dylan get good and can they win games?”

Matt Rhule was hired by Trev Alberts in part because of his player development; because he is known as a guy who can make guys better. Here is your ultimate opportunity. Here’s your best prospect. Here’s a guy that Nebraska probably under Matt Rule will never get anybody as talented as Dylan Raiola. That’s the type of prospect he is.

So if they’re not able to develop him and get him to make the next step, you start to question some of the validity of why Matt Rhule was hired. It’s more than just, “can he be better and can they just get more wins?” Which is a big part of that. But here is your shiny, gold, diamond prospect. Can he take the next step? Can the things that you tell him to do; can he execute them and can that turn into better play?

A changing defense

Josh

: I wrote about John Butler taking over the defense; “How much regression should be baked into the defensive cake?” And so, a couple of numbers before we dive into this discussion; Bill Connelly, his SP+ at the end of 2023, Nebraska’s defense was ranked sixth. Last year it was 12th. So still really, really good. I think it was noticeable that they were worse though. I thought their tackling was worse.

It’s interesting, Matt, remember going into last season, a lot of the conversation was about the sack numbers, and even though they played one more game, they had two fewer sacks; it went from 32 to 30. And a lot of that happened in the first half of the season. 20 sacks through the first six games. And then after that, they really, really struggled at getting to the quarterback.

And then you have John Butler, who takes over, and he has only had one year as a coordinator at the college level. I went back and I looked at some SP+ numbers around that Penn State era. That team finished 35th in SP+, but you look at the years beforehand; seventh and 16th. The years after; 10th and 16th. So, his was like this one kind of outlier year where they just were a little bit worse.

But then, let’s turn to the positive. Phil Snow; he’s involved. I think that that is certainly a positive. I like some of the young pieces. Can they create more splash plays on this defense? And one more thing, and I don’t mean to jump from analytics to analytics, but Kelley Ford yesterday, he was putting up offenses that opposing defenses will face in terms of difficulty. And Nebraska’s schedule on paper, their defense is going to face offenses averaging 80th-best in the country this year. Maybe the defense takes a bit of a step back, but the offenses that you’re gonna play on paper are not gonna be very good. And so that could end up being a big positive.

Matt

: We are now in an era of defense where nickel is no longer a package. Nickel is like a default, essentially. And the idea is that you just want as many athletic and fast guys on the field to cover as much grass and to be just as multiple as you possibly can to match the changing athleticism and creativity we’ve seen on offenses. And this is from college to the NFL.

And when you do that, when you get smaller on the secondary and smaller in your linebackers, you need the residual beef up front to handle that, which is why you see the [Philadelphia] Eagles have Milton and Jalen Carter and Davis and these just massive behemoth men, right?

Because when you have smaller linebackers, you gotta make sure that the offensive line can’t shed off the defensive line and get to the second level. I’m worried about that with this defense. I’m worried that they don’t have the length and the beef up front, because I do think they’re athletic in the secondary.

I love Vincent Shavers. I love Willis McGahee. I really, really like Marques Watson Trent, the pick-up from Georgia Southern. I like the secondary, where the secondary is young and is athletic, but you still have some better leadership and Hartzog and Singleton, right?

But I don’t like any of those guys’ chance against a 6’6, 330- pound, pulling guard. So that’s where I’m at. This D-line, this Riley Van Poppel, Cam Lenhardt, Elijah Jeudy, Jaylen George, Keona Davis; these are guys who have played football, but they have been in the shadow of Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher, who played a lot of football last year. Ty Robinson was averaging a lot of snaps last year.

So, I think my concerns are less so with Butler and more so with this defense was at its best when the D-line was playing well. And I think when they lost that Ohio State game, that D-line wasn’t playing well in the fourth quarter. They weren’t getting that push and they were able with Will Howard able to march down the field and score and end up winning that game. That D-line freaks me out.

What 2025 means for 2026

Matt

: In my mind, this season is about “play well enough so you don’t have to scramble and be desperate for 2026.”

Josh

: 100%. The unspoken or rarely spoken about part of this season is that it is the ultimate proof of concept time to buy in a 2026 type season. Matt, if we are having the exact same discussion next year of, “can this guy be the guy to help them get to eight wins?” That’s not what you want to be asking. You want to say, “can this team make the playoff?” I know that some people might listen to that and say, “you guys are being ridiculous.” But it’s going to be year four. You need to be able to have that conversation next summer.

Matt

: I’m going to say it because I haven’t said it yet; this team is a year away. OK? This program is a year away. How this roster is built, the talent that they have, with how old they are, and the previous production that they’ve had. This team is built to be one year away. They need to win eight games.

You need to have guys play a lot of snaps. You have to have guys take big steps so they can all say, “all right, we were young last year. We won eight games. We learned a lot. We all should come back and play for 2026.” Right? Nobody entered the portal. None of the key guys are on the portal. Let’s just go and let’s just try and win because this is our chance to make the playoff.

Josh

: Kind of like a poor man’s version of what happened with Ohio State and Michigan the last two years, right? Where those guys were like, “we’re coming back to win a natty!” Nebraska, “let’s come back and take that true big time next step.” If we’re not having that conversation, the Matt Rhule is going in a direction that I don’t think people are gonna be happy about. I think that’s it comes down to.

Matt

: If they go 7-5, and this is why I tell people why one game matters so much. Because if they go 8-4, you’re like, all right, let’s take the next step. Let’s go ahead, let’s make the playoff. But if you go 7-5, there are people in that program thinking, all right, has Nebraska really changed? Is this really a place I can win at?

And you have Dylan there. What happens if they go 7-5 and then all of a sudden Miami’s like, “hey, we’ll pay you $6 million.” What’s Dylan gonna wanna do? Is Dylan gonna wanna continue to be at Nebraska?

Josh

: Does he wanna go 7-5 again? Or does he wanna join the players out of Miami?

Matt

: Does he wanna go to Miami, make a crap ton of money? You know, no state income tax, which matters now for college. And you’re in the sun, you’re hanging out. He can wear all the watches, the chains, and everything like that out there and he’ll fit in, he’ll look awesome. And then he’ll be playing with high level talent. Or if you go 8-4 for Nebraska, you’re like, “come back, man. We can do it. We can make the playoff. You can make a legacy. You can be a hero. You can be the legend that did it.”

They’re a year away and that’s why this year is so important. It’s not necessarily this year is so important because they have massive things to accomplish in 2025. This year is so important because they have big things to accomplish in 2026.

Is the schedule as easy as it seems?

Josh

: “Is the schedule as light on paper as it seems?” And this is a callback to every year forever, but in particular last year because at this time we were like, “wow, they could be 6-0 by the time that X, Y and Z happens.” And in the first half of the season in 2024, Nebraska would play three teams that would finish ranked inside of the AP Top 25; Colorado, who finished 25th, Illinois, who finished 16th, Indiana, who finished 10th. And that’s not even counting a UCLA team that was better in the back half of the season than they were in the front. The eventual national champions, actually a Wisconsin team that regressed, and Iowa, which is always Iowa.

So, the question now in terms of 2025, again, going back to [Kelley] Ford, because he put this up yesterday morning; schedule difficulty rankings. And this is early, we’re in June. Nebraska has the 40th-hardest schedule on paper right now. That is behind a bevy of teams in the conference. It’s one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten Conference.

On paper, you look at it, of course, they have the Cincinnati game. They don’t have a true road game until October 11th against Maryland. In terms of who they avoid, Ohio State’s not on the schedule this year. Oregon is not on the schedule this year. I think if you want to play Michigan, which they’re going to play Michigan, you probably want to catch them in September, right? I’d rather play them in September than November. Now, they’re going to have to play Penn State late and that’s going to be a sure loss in my opinion. But, on paper, it seems it’s, “hey, this isn’t too bad of a schedule.” And so the question of course is, “is it as easy as it seems on paper at this time?”

Matt

: I think the schedule is what it is. I think however we think about the schedule is correct. Where the Penn State, USC, and Iowa games are definitely going to be difficult. And Michigan, right? You have like four games are going to be difficult. You have four games are going to be “you should win them.” And then you have four games that should be easy. I think it’s kind of like how I’ve broken this up.

But I think Maryland and Minnesota are going to be awful this year. I feel way better about those games right now, learning what I’ve learned about those teams, through my prep now than I did when the schedule first came out. But I think that Michigan State and Northwestern are going to be better than people are going to recognize. I think those will be more difficult games. Last year they got unlucky, because nobody got worse. Nobody took a step back. There was nobody on the schedule that you thought was going to be good, and they ended up being bad. And it was really just everybody you thought was going to be not so good ended up getting a lot better.

I think this year will even out a little bit more. I think you have teams that maybe you think a little bit higher of that aren’t going to play as well. And I think that you have teams that you don’t think highly of that are going to play much better. So I think the schedule evens out. We got to learn our lesson from last year because I don’t think in this transfer portal era with all these players going to all these different spots and all this talent constantly moving; it’s hard to pinpoint what teams are going to be what.

Will Nebraska win close games in 2025?

Josh

: “Can Nebraska finally close games out here?” I’ll just read from my
column
. Here are the margins of defeat Matt Rhule’s teams have taken in the 13 losses; 3, 22, 38, 33, seven in overtime, three, seven in overtime, 49, 4, 7, 8, 3. That is three losses by double-digits and the other 10 games have come by a combined 48 points. So, you’re talking about 4.8 points per game. Get ready, over the course of the Chronicles, a lot of Matt Rhule games rank very, very highly. They are still playing similar football to what they did at the end of the Frost era, where it’s like, “how did they lose that stupid game?”

They have three wins in games that were decided by one touchdown or less. Northwestern in year one, Rutgers last year, Boston College in the bowl game. That is it. Can they close games out? Or Matt, the other way that I described it, can they win games by double digits? How do you not lose one-score games? You don’t play in one-score games. Can they get up on teams? I always bring up Illinois in year one and Purdue in year one, because in the second half of those games, the offense was a tire fire. They kept turning the ball over and giving it back. But every time that the defense went on the field, they had a two-score lead. And I do think that that ended up helping them because a touchdown wouldn’t have been a backbreaker and they wouldn’t have lost.

Whereas Minnesota year one, Maryland year one, Iowa year one, Iowa year two; all of those other times that they lost games, when the defense went on the field needing a stop, it was either tied or they were up by three points or whatever, and they failed. How do you win score games? Don’t play in them. But when they’re in them, can they actually close some of these games out?

Matt

: I made fun of the whole “Chasing Three” thing because I’m like, “why the hell are we chasing three? You should be chasing 25.” Let’s talk about this, too. Let’s talk about the dichotomy of Curt Cignetti and Matt Rhule. Because Curt Cignetti walks into his locker room and no matter who they’re playing, he tells his team, “You’re going to kick their ass. You’re better than this team. You are going to go in there. You’re going to run them over.” They could be playing whomever. He says, “You are going to murder this team because we prepared you to murder this team. And you’re better than this team.” Could be playing “Maryseed of the Blind.” Could be playing Ohio State. That’s Curt Cignetti’s message. And his players are delusional enough where they believe it and go, “we are going to kick their ass. We are going to go out there. We are going to run them over.”

Josh

: Well, and then they started doing it.

Matt

: And then they did it! Where you have Matt Rhule, who tells his team, “Hey, this game can come down to one play. We’re going to be in a fight. We’re going to be in a war. This is going to be a one score game. Somebody’s livelihood is going to come down to this one play. And is it going to be you who’s going to make it.” Who would you rather be hearing? What message would you rather be hearing? “This game really only matters for three plays and you got to make sure that you’re going to make one of those three plays or we’re going to lose this game,” or, “hey, you’re just better and you’re going to win?”

I’ve always had that problem with them being like, “it’s going to be a one score game and it’s going to be really tight,” because then you have guys who have football PTSD from losing all these one-score games who get nervous about it. Who will get a little puckered about it. Who are like holding out of the wheel as tight as they can, because they’re like, “oh my God, we don’t want to blow another one.” Where credit to [Cignetti]. [Curt Cignetti] goes, “No, you’re better than this game, you’re going to win.”

Watch the entire podcast below, as they unpack all five of Josh’s concerns and give scores on how confident they are Nebraska will perform well.

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And don’t forget to check out the Groin Kick Chronicles, the I-80 Club’s mathematical rankings of Nebraska’s last 70 losses. Audio, video, and articles can be found wherever you get podcasts, on YouTube, and right here on HuskerMax.

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Can Nebraska Football Answer Our Questions In A Positive Way In 2025?
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